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Table 3 Future prediction of Cost of illness (COI)

From: Cost of illness of the stomach cancer in Japan - a time trend and future projections

Model

 

Item

2008

2014

2020

 

Estimated population (thousand person)

127,690

125,862

122,735

  [% of 65 years or older]

22.1%

26.2%

29.2%

Fixed model

Number of stomach cancer deaths (person)

50,156

58,784

66,164

  [% of 65 years or older]

80.7%

84.7%

87.2%

Average age of death (year)

74.1

75.5

76.6

Direct cost (billion yen)

253.7

288.0

315.3

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

54.0

56.1

57.3

Mortality cost (billion yen)

806.4

833.4

851.7

  [% of 65 years or older]

42.0%

47.3%

50.0%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

16.1

14.2

12.9

COI (billion yen)

1,114.2

1,177.4

1,224.3

Variable model

Logarithm model

Number of stomach cancer deaths (person)

50,156

58,554

62,868

  [% of 65 years or older]

80.7%

84.9%

87.7%

Average age of death (year)

74.1

75.6

76.9

Direct cost (billion yen)

253.7

243.8

227.9

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

54.0

49.3

42.4

Mortality cost (billion yen)

806.4

824.4

785.8

  [% of 65 years or older]

42.0%

47.5%

51.0%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

16.1

14.1

12.5

COI (billion yen)

1,114.2

1,117.5

1,056.1

Linear model

Number of stomach cancer deaths (person)

50,156

45,021

37,581

  [% of 65 years or older]

80.7%

87.1%

91.8%

Average age of death (year)

74.1

76.7

79.1

Direct cost (billion yen)

253.7

162.3

67.3

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

54.0

31.0

17.7

Mortality cost (billion yen)

806.4

557.0

357.7

  [% of 65 years or older]

42.0%

52.5%

60.7%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

16.1

12.4

9.5

COI (billion yen)

1,114.2

750.3

442.8

Mixed model

Number of stomach cancer deaths (person)

50,156

45,021

37,581

  [% of 65 years or older]

80.7%

87.1%

91.8%

Average age of death (year)

74.1

76.7

79.1

Direct cost (billion yen)

253.7

187.1

100.4

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

54.0

37.1

26.4

Mortality cost (billion yen)

806.4

557.0

357.7

  [% of 65 years or older]

42.0%

52.5%

60.7%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

16.1

12.4

9.5

COI (billion yen)

1,114.2

781.2

484.5

  1. Source of estimated population:2008;Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Population Estimates” 2014•2020;National Institute of Population and Social Security Research “Population Statistics of Japan”.