Model parameter | Base-case value | Lower and upper values in sensitivity analysis | References |
---|---|---|---|
Performance of screening tests | |||
gFOBT sensitivity for adenomas | 11% | 10%, 12%1 | |
gFOBT sensitivity for CRC | 36% | 31%, 42%1 | |
gFOBT specificity for adenomas and CRC | 97% | 96%, 98% | |
FIT sensitivity for adenomas | 21% | 19%, 22%1 | |
FIT sensitivity for CRC | 71% | 67%, 75%1 | |
FIT specificity for adenomas and CRC | 95% | 94%, 96% | |
FSIG sensitivity for low-risk distal adenomas | 65% | 60%, 70%1 | |
FSIG sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk distal adenomas | 74% | 68%, 78%1 | |
FSIG sensitivity for distal CRC | 90% | 85%, 95%1 | |
FSIG specificity for distal adenomas and CRC | 92% | 90%, 95% | |
Uptake and compliance with screening, diagnosis and surveillance | |||
gFOBT uptake | 53% | 32%, 70% | |
FIT uptake | 53% | 32%, 70% | |
FSIG uptake | 39% | 24%, 67% | |
COL compliance (diagnostic test or adenoma surveillance) | 86% | - | |
Performance of diagnostic tests and related parameters | |||
COL sensitivity for low-risk adenomas | 77% | - | |
COL sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk adenomas | 98% | - | |
COL sensitivity for CRC | 98% | - | |
COL specificity for adenomas and CRC | 97% | - | Expert opinion |
CTC sensitivity for low-risk adenomas | 53% | - | |
CTC sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk adenomas | 85% | - | |
CTC sensitivity for CRC | 85% | - | |
CTC specificity for adenomas and CRC | 86% | - | |
Average number of adenomas removed per person | 1.9 | - | [47] |
% of those with intermediate/high-risk adenomas removed in whom the adenoma was high-risk | 29% | - | [34] |
Harms of screening | |||
FSIG probability of perforation (with or without polypectomy) | 0.002% | - | [38] |
FSIG probability of death following perforation | 6.452% | - | [48] |
Probability of (major) bleeding following FSIG | 0.029% | - | [38] |
COL probability of perforation (with polypectomy) | 0.216% | - | [49] |
COL probability of perforation (without polypectomy) | 0.107% | - | |
COL probability of death following perforation | 5.195% | - | [48] |
Probability of (major) bleeding following COL | 0.379% | - | [38] |