Figure 1

Probabilities of morbidity and mortality associated with medication intake used in the modelling approach. Enclosed in the oval is the part of the model used for the scenario. Probability of drug prescription in the original model was 0.55, and no drug was 0.45. Overall outcome probabilities obtained by multiplying probability of type of drug-related problem with probability of outcome of drug-related problem (probabilities originate from the model published by Ernst et al., 2001 [17]).