Table 1 Model inputs
Clinical inputs for transition probabilities | Values | Sources | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline features | ||||
Age distribution (mean in years) | 70.5 | Blotman et al. 2007 [7] | ||
Prior fracture (%) | 59.7 | |||
Fracture probabilities | ||||
Absolute risk by age (% per year) | Vertebrae | Hip | Wrist | |
50-54 years | 3.10 | 0.00 | 2.99 | |
55-59 years | 3.59 | 0.06 | 3.20 | |
60-64 years | 4.15 | 0.20 | 3.18 | Cotté et al. 2009 [24] |
65-69 years | 4.81 | 0.34 | 2.06 | |
70-74 years | 5.56 | 0.65 | 1.97 | |
75-79 years | 6.44 | 1.04 | 1.17 | |
80-84 years | 7.45 | 1.62 | 0.92 | |
> 84 years | 8.62 | 3.52 | 0.92 | |
Relative risk | Vertebrae | Hip | Wrist | |
associated with any prior fracture at baseline | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |
post-vertebral fracture health state | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | Klotzbuecher et al. 2000 [25] |
post-hip fracture health state | 2.5 | 2.3 | NA | |
post-wrist fracture health state | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3.3 | |
Relative risk reduction with BP | Vertebrae | Hip | Wrist | |
for any women at baseline | 0.526 | 0.672 | 0.833 | |
from post-vertebral fracture health state | 0.575 | 0.620 | NA | Kanis et al. 2002 [9] |
from post-hip fracture health state | NA | 0.620 | NA | |
from post-wrist fracture health state | 0.575 | 0.620 | 0.566 | |
Loss of bisphosphonate protection | ||||
Treatment duration (T; in months) | Persistence rates (P; in %) | |||
Start | 100 | Fardellone et al. 2005 [28] | ||
6 | 65 | *Source data were fitted to an exponential function to generate persistence curve over 24 months: | ||
12 | 51 | P = 1 - 0.196 × ln(T) | ||
24 | 41 | |||
36 | 30* | |||
48 | 24* | |||
60 to simulation ending time | 20* | |||
Treatment duration (T; in months) | Protection duration** (y; in months) | |||
Start | 0 | Cotté et al. 2009 [39] | ||
12 | 24 | **Residual effect of BP was modeled as follow: | ||
24 | 43 | y = 13.5 × e0.048 × T | ||
36 | 76 | |||
48 | All simulation period | |||
60 to simulation ending time | All simulation period | |||