Model | Full cohort (n = 28,068) | Age 65+ (n = 20,090) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | c-statistic (95% CI) | Brier score (SD) | Δ c(%) | c-statistic (95% CI) | Brier Score (SD) | Δ c(%) |
Death | ||||||
Base model | 0.758 (0.745, 0.771) | 0.042 (0.175) | -- | 0.718 (0.703, 0.733) | 0.055 (0.196) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.792 (0.780, 0.804) | 0.042 (0.171) | 0.034 (4.48) | 0.756 (0.742, 0.769) | 0.054 (0.191) | 0.038 (5.29) |
+ Charlson | 0.811 (0.800, 0.822) | 0.042 (0.170) | 0.053 (6.95) | 0.772 (0.759, 0.785) | 0.054 (0.190) | 0.054 (7.57) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.827 (0.817, 0.838) | 0.040 (0.166) | 0.069 (9.09) | 0.793 (0.780, 0.805) | 0.052 (0.185) | 0.075 (10.42) |
+ # drugs | 0.782 (0.769, 0.794) | 0.042 (0.172) | 0.024 (3.10) | 0.746 (0.732, 0.760) | 0.054 (0.191) | 0.028 (3.91) |
+ CDS | 0.778 (0.766, 0.791) | 0.042 (0.172) | 0.020 (2.62) | 0.741 (0.727, 0.754) | 0.054 (0.192) | 0.023 (3.15) |
One or more hospitalizations | ||||||
Base model | 0.579 (0.572, 0.586) | 0.220 (0.157) | -- | 0.550 (0.542, 0.558) | 0.232 (0.129) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.667 (0.660, 0.673) | 0.208 (0.178) | 0.088 (15.14) | 0.647 (0.639, 0.654) | 0.220 (0.157) | 0.097 (17.54) |
+ Charlson | 0.619 (0.612, 0.626) | 0.216 (0.166) | 0.040 (6.98) | 0.598 (0.590, 0.606) | 0.227 (0.141) | 0.048 (8.73) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.637 (0.630, 0.644) | 0.212 (0.173) | 0.058 (10.08) | 0.620 (0.612, 0.628) | 0.223 (0.151) | 0.070 (12.65) |
+ # drugs | 0.631 (0.624, 0.638) | 0.213 (0.168) | 0.052 (9.02) | 0.609 (0.601, 0.618) | 0.225 (0.144) | 0.059 (10.80) |
+ CDS | 0.618 (0.611, 0.625) | 0.215 (0.166) | 0.039 (6.69) | 0.597 (0.589, 0.605) | 0.227 (0.141) | 0.047 (8.61) |
Two or more hospitalizations | ||||||
Base model | 0.606 (0.597, 0.615) | 0.124 (0.243) | -- | 0.570 (0.559, 0.580) | 0.139 (0.245) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.697 (0.688, 0.705) | 0.118 (0.235) | 0.090 (14.92) | 0.669 (0.659, 0.679) | 0.133 (0.238) | 0.099 (17.37) |
+ Charlson | 0.650 (0.641, 0.659) | 0.122 (0.240) | 0.044 (7.19) | 0.619 (0.609, 0.630) | 0.137 (0.242) | 0.050 (8.73) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.672 (0.663, 0.681) | 0.119 (0.237) | 0.066 (10.86) | 0.645 (0.634, 0.655) | 0.135 (0.239) | 0.075 (13.15) |
+ # drugs | 0.656 (0.647, 0.665) | 0.121 (0.237) | 0.050 (8.28) | 0.625 (0.615, 0.636) | 0.136 (0.240) | 0.056 (9.80) |
+ CDS | 0.651 (0.642, 0.660) | 0.121 (0.238) | 0.045 (7.41) | 0.620 (0.610, 0.631) | 0.137 (0.240) | 0.051 (8.89) |