Table 3 Model comparisons for mortality and hospitalization in the general population cohort, full and age-restricted
| Model | Full cohort (n = 662,423) | Age 65+ (n = 137,700) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
c-statistic (95% CI) |
Brier score (SD) | Δc(%) |
c-statistic (95% CI) |
Brier score (SD) | Δ c(%) | |
| Death | ||||||
| Base model |
0.880 (0.877, 0.884) | 0.012 (0.098) | -- |
0.729 (0.723, 0.735) |
0.046 (0.183) | -- |
| + # diagnoses |
0.901
(0.898, 0.904) | 0.012 (0.096) | 0.021 (2.36) |
0.769
(0.764, 0.775) |
0.046 (0.179) | 0.040 (5.53) |
| + Charlson |
0.905
(0.902, 0.908) | 0.012 (0.095) | 0.025 (2.81) |
0.785
(0.779, 0.790) |
0.045 (0.177) | 0.056 (7.64) |
| + Elixhauser |
0.913
(0.910, 0.916) | 0.012 (0.093) | 0.033 (3.73) |
0.805
(0.799, 0.810) |
0.044 (0.173) | 0.076 (10.36) |
| + # drugs |
0.894
(0.890, 0.897) | 0.012 (0.096) | 0.013 (1.53) |
0.764
(0.759, 0.770) |
0.045 (0.178) | 0.035 (4.83) |
| + CDS |
0.889
(0.886, 0.892) | 0.012 (0.097) | 0.009 (1.01) |
0.751
(0.745, 0.757) |
0.046 (0.181) | 0.022 (3.00) |
| One or more hospitalizations | ||||||
| Base model |
0.652 (0.651, 0.654) | 0.138 (0.238) | -- |
0.563 (0.559, 0.566) |
0.215 (0.171) | -- |
| + # diagnoses |
0.722
(0.720, 0.724) | 0.130 (0.233) | 0.070 (10.68) |
0.668
(0.664, 0.671) |
0.202 (0.189) | 0.105 (18.60) |
| + Charlson |
0.671
(0.669, 0.672) | 0.136 (0.238) | 0.018 (2.81) |
0.613
(0.610, 0.616) |
0.210 (0.179) | 0.050 (8.92) |
| + Elixhauser |
0.682
(0.680, 0.683) | 0.134 (0.236) | 0.029 (4.47) |
0.630
(0.627, 0.633) |
0.206 (0.184) | 0.067 (11.92) |
| + # drugs |
0.688
(0.686, 0.690) | 0.134 (0.235) | 0.036 (5.46) |
0.625
(0.622, 0.628) |
0.207 (0.181) | 0.063 (11.10) |
| + CDS |
0.672
(0.671, 0.674) | 0.136 (0.236) | 0.020 (3.05) |
0.604
(0.601, 0.607) |
0.210 (0.177) | 0.041 (7.34) |
| Two or more hospitalizations | ||||||
| Base model |
0.706 (0.704, 0.709) | 0.047 (0.187) | -- |
0.571 (0.567, 0.576) |
0.110 (0.246) | -- |
| + # diagnoses |
0.782
(0.779, 0.785) | 0.045 (0.179) | 0.075 (10.67) |
0.686
(0.682, 0.690) |
0.105 (0.235) | 0.115 (20.07) |
| + Charlson |
0.731
(0.728, 0.734) | 0.047 (0.184) | 0.024 (3.42) |
0.633
(0.629, 0.638) |
0.108 (0.241) | 0.062 (10.92) |
| + Elixhauser |
0.748
(0.745, 0.751) | 0.046 (0.181) | 0.042 (5.91) |
0.653
(0.649, 0.658) |
0.106 (0.237) | 0.082 (14.40) |
| + # drugs |
0.744
(0.742, 0.747) | 0.046 (0.182) | 0.038 (5.37) |
0.638
(0.633, 0.642) |
0.107 (0.238) | 0.067 (11.66) |
| + CDS |
0.729
(0.726, 0.732) | 0.047 (0.184) | 0.023 (3.18) |
0.619
(0.614, 0.623) |
0.108 (0.241) | 0.048 (8.32) |
