Model | Full cohort (n = 662,423) | Age 65+ (n = 137,700) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | c-statistic (95% CI) | Brier score (SD) | Δc(%) | c-statistic (95% CI) | Brier score (SD) | Δ c(%) |
Death | ||||||
Base model | 0.880 (0.877, 0.884) | 0.012 (0.098) | -- | 0.729 (0.723, 0.735) | 0.046 (0.183) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.901 (0.898, 0.904) | 0.012 (0.096) | 0.021 (2.36) | 0.769 (0.764, 0.775) | 0.046 (0.179) | 0.040 (5.53) |
+ Charlson | 0.905 (0.902, 0.908) | 0.012 (0.095) | 0.025 (2.81) | 0.785 (0.779, 0.790) | 0.045 (0.177) | 0.056 (7.64) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.913 (0.910, 0.916) | 0.012 (0.093) | 0.033 (3.73) | 0.805 (0.799, 0.810) | 0.044 (0.173) | 0.076 (10.36) |
+ # drugs | 0.894 (0.890, 0.897) | 0.012 (0.096) | 0.013 (1.53) | 0.764 (0.759, 0.770) | 0.045 (0.178) | 0.035 (4.83) |
+ CDS | 0.889 (0.886, 0.892) | 0.012 (0.097) | 0.009 (1.01) | 0.751 (0.745, 0.757) | 0.046 (0.181) | 0.022 (3.00) |
One or more hospitalizations | ||||||
Base model | 0.652 (0.651, 0.654) | 0.138 (0.238) | -- | 0.563 (0.559, 0.566) | 0.215 (0.171) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.722 (0.720, 0.724) | 0.130 (0.233) | 0.070 (10.68) | 0.668 (0.664, 0.671) | 0.202 (0.189) | 0.105 (18.60) |
+ Charlson | 0.671 (0.669, 0.672) | 0.136 (0.238) | 0.018 (2.81) | 0.613 (0.610, 0.616) | 0.210 (0.179) | 0.050 (8.92) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.682 (0.680, 0.683) | 0.134 (0.236) | 0.029 (4.47) | 0.630 (0.627, 0.633) | 0.206 (0.184) | 0.067 (11.92) |
+ # drugs | 0.688 (0.686, 0.690) | 0.134 (0.235) | 0.036 (5.46) | 0.625 (0.622, 0.628) | 0.207 (0.181) | 0.063 (11.10) |
+ CDS | 0.672 (0.671, 0.674) | 0.136 (0.236) | 0.020 (3.05) | 0.604 (0.601, 0.607) | 0.210 (0.177) | 0.041 (7.34) |
Two or more hospitalizations | ||||||
Base model | 0.706 (0.704, 0.709) | 0.047 (0.187) | -- | 0.571 (0.567, 0.576) | 0.110 (0.246) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.782 (0.779, 0.785) | 0.045 (0.179) | 0.075 (10.67) | 0.686 (0.682, 0.690) | 0.105 (0.235) | 0.115 (20.07) |
+ Charlson | 0.731 (0.728, 0.734) | 0.047 (0.184) | 0.024 (3.42) | 0.633 (0.629, 0.638) | 0.108 (0.241) | 0.062 (10.92) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.748 (0.745, 0.751) | 0.046 (0.181) | 0.042 (5.91) | 0.653 (0.649, 0.658) | 0.106 (0.237) | 0.082 (14.40) |
+ # drugs | 0.744 (0.742, 0.747) | 0.046 (0.182) | 0.038 (5.37) | 0.638 (0.633, 0.642) | 0.107 (0.238) | 0.067 (11.66) |
+ CDS | 0.729 (0.726, 0.732) | 0.047 (0.184) | 0.023 (3.18) | 0.619 (0.614, 0.623) | 0.108 (0.241) | 0.048 (8.32) |