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Table 3 Model comparisons for mortality and hospitalization in the general population cohort, full and age-restricted

From: Comparing comorbidity measures for predicting mortality and hospitalization in three population-based cohorts

Model Full cohort (n = 662,423) Age 65+ (n = 137,700)
  c-statistic
(95% CI)
Brier
score (SD)
Δc(%) c-statistic
(95% CI)
Brier
score (SD)
Δ c(%)
Death
Base model 0.880
(0.877, 0.884)
0.012 (0.098) -- 0.729
(0.723, 0.735)
0.046
(0.183)
--
+ # diagnoses 0.901
(0.898, 0.904)
0.012 (0.096) 0.021 (2.36) 0.769
(0.764, 0.775)
0.046
(0.179)
0.040 (5.53)
+ Charlson 0.905
(0.902, 0.908)
0.012 (0.095) 0.025 (2.81) 0.785
(0.779, 0.790)
0.045
(0.177)
0.056 (7.64)
+ Elixhauser 0.913
(0.910, 0.916)
0.012 (0.093) 0.033 (3.73) 0.805
(0.799, 0.810)
0.044
(0.173)
0.076 (10.36)
+ # drugs 0.894
(0.890, 0.897)
0.012 (0.096) 0.013 (1.53) 0.764
(0.759, 0.770)
0.045
(0.178)
0.035 (4.83)
+ CDS 0.889
(0.886, 0.892)
0.012 (0.097) 0.009 (1.01) 0.751
(0.745, 0.757)
0.046
(0.181)
0.022 (3.00)
One or more hospitalizations
Base model 0.652
(0.651, 0.654)
0.138 (0.238) -- 0.563
(0.559, 0.566)
0.215
(0.171)
--
+ # diagnoses 0.722
(0.720, 0.724)
0.130 (0.233) 0.070 (10.68) 0.668
(0.664, 0.671)
0.202
(0.189)
0.105 (18.60)
+ Charlson 0.671
(0.669, 0.672)
0.136 (0.238) 0.018 (2.81) 0.613
(0.610, 0.616)
0.210
(0.179)
0.050 (8.92)
+ Elixhauser 0.682
(0.680, 0.683)
0.134 (0.236) 0.029 (4.47) 0.630
(0.627, 0.633)
0.206
(0.184)
0.067 (11.92)
+ # drugs 0.688
(0.686, 0.690)
0.134 (0.235) 0.036 (5.46) 0.625
(0.622, 0.628)
0.207
(0.181)
0.063 (11.10)
+ CDS 0.672
(0.671, 0.674)
0.136 (0.236) 0.020 (3.05) 0.604
(0.601, 0.607)
0.210
(0.177)
0.041 (7.34)
Two or more hospitalizations
Base model 0.706
(0.704, 0.709)
0.047 (0.187) -- 0.571
(0.567, 0.576)
0.110
(0.246)
--
+ # diagnoses 0.782
(0.779, 0.785)
0.045 (0.179) 0.075 (10.67) 0.686
(0.682, 0.690)
0.105
(0.235)
0.115 (20.07)
+ Charlson 0.731
(0.728, 0.734)
0.047 (0.184) 0.024 (3.42) 0.633
(0.629, 0.638)
0.108
(0.241)
0.062 (10.92)
+ Elixhauser 0.748
(0.745, 0.751)
0.046 (0.181) 0.042 (5.91) 0.653
(0.649, 0.658)
0.106
(0.237)
0.082 (14.40)
+ # drugs 0.744
(0.742, 0.747)
0.046 (0.182) 0.038 (5.37) 0.638
(0.633, 0.642)
0.107
(0.238)
0.067 (11.66)
+ CDS 0.729
(0.726, 0.732)
0.047 (0.184) 0.023 (3.18) 0.619
(0.614, 0.623)
0.108
(0.241)
0.048 (8.32)
  1. Base model includes age, age2, sex, income quintile, and geography
  2. CDS = Chronic Disease Score
  3. Δc = difference in the c-statistic between the base and full models; c-statistics in boldface font are significantly different from the c-statistic for the base model, according to the method of DeLong et al. [39]
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