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Table 4 Multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analysis of the relative risk of dying

From: Improving the evidence base of Markov models used to estimate the costs of scaling up antiretroviral programmes in resource-limited settings

Variables   0 to 4 months on ART   5 to 12 months on ART   13 to 24 months on ART   >24 months on ART  
   co-eff (95% CI) p-value co-eff (95% CI) p-value co-eff (95% CI) p-value co-eff (95% CI) p-value
Baseline CD4 cell count (cells/µL) <50 2.09 (1.02 to 4.28) 0.043 1.6 (0.84 to 3.06) 0.152 1 (0.57 to 1.73) 0.992 0.79 (0.51 to 1.22) 0.279
  50-199 Referent
Current CD4 cell count (cells/µL) <50 N/A N/A 1.89 (0.96 to 3.72) 0.065 3.88 (2.03 to 7.41) <0.001 3.54 (2.17 to 5.75) <0.001
  50-199 Referent
  200-349 N/A N/A 0.58 (0.25 to 1.34) 0.206 0.19 (0.06 to 0.55) 0.002 0.74 (0.38 to 1.44) 0.376
  ≥350 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.36 (0.12 to 1.09) 0.071 0.42 (0.15 to 1.17) 0.098
  ≥500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.42 (0.15 to 1.23) 0.115
Baseline viral load (copies/ml) <100 000 Referent
  ≥100 000 2.12 (0.86 to 5.21) 0.103 0.82 (0.44 to 1.53) 0.541 1.34 (0.77 to 2.33) 0.298 1.2 (0.78 to 1.85) 0.413
Current viral load (copies/ml) <400 Referent
  400 – 9 999 N/A N/A 1.09 (0.44 to 2.66) 0.270 1.42 (0.57 to 3.59) 0.967 1.32 (0.56 to 3.14) 0.033
  10 000 – 99 999 N/A N/A 0.64 (0.29 to 1.41) 0.106 1.02 (0.44 to 2.36) 0.394 2.24 (1.07 to 4.7) 0.001
  ≥100 000 N/A N/A 1.76 (0.89 to 3.47) 0.541 1.42 (0.63 to 3.2) 0.298 3.6 (1.68 to 7.7) 0.413
ART adherence (quartiles) <42% 2.14 (0.69 to 6.67) 0.188 1.89 (1 to 3.57) 0.049 1.40 (0.59 to 3.29) 0.443 2.21 (0.87 to 5.63) 0.096
  42 to 75% 3.18 (1.05 to 9.61) 0.04 1.78 (0.92 to 3.43) 0.086 0.65 (0.26 to 1.64) 0.362 2.58 (1.04 to 6.39) 0.041
  75 to 92% N/A N/A 1.76 (0.9 to 3.46) 0.098 0.91 (0.37 to 2.23) 0.84 1.48 (0.56 to 3.91) 0.427
  >92% Referent
ARV regimen First line Referent
  Second line 6.39 (0.85 to 47.75) 0.071 5.25 (2.11 to 13.06) <0.001 1.4 (0.64 to 3.06) 0.402 1.67 (1.09 to 2.56) 0.018
NNRTI in first line efavirenz Referent
  neviripine 0.6 (0.28 to 1.26) 0.175 1.26 (0.8 to 2) 0.324 1.56 (0.85 to 2.85) 0.149 0.89 (0.59 to 1.34) 0.568
Duration of monitoring prior to starting ART (months) ≥6 Referent
  <6 2.9 (0.28 to 1.26) 0.296 1.15 (0.8 to 2) 0.692 1.67 (0.85 to 2.85) 0.328 1.05 (0.59 to 1.34) 0.890
Sex male 0.79 (0.38 to 1.67) 0.545 1 (0.68 to 1.46) 0.998 1.15 (0.69 to 1.91) 0.595 1.26 (0.85 to 1.86) 0.257
  female Referent
Age at baseline (years) <25 0.63 (0.15 to 2.7) 0.531 2.06 (0.51 to 8.4) 0.312 1.82 (0.25 to 13.22) 0.555 2.15 (0.52 to 8.83) 0.289
  25-49 Referent
  ≥50 1.69 (0.32 to 9.03) 0.540 2.39 (0.52 to 10.98) 0.263 1.34 (0.14 to 13.03) 0.801 3.86 (0.81 to 18.35) 0.090