Table 5 Prevalence of selected diseases among predicted top user groups by five risk adjustment models at three outcome thresholds
| Â | Actual Top Users | Model 1: Demographics | Model 2: ACGs & Demographics | Model 3: ADGs, 19 EDCs & Demographics | Model 4: 2002 Expenditures & Demographics | Model 5: ADGs, 19 EDCs, 2002 Expenditures & Demographics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 Top 0.5% predicted user | ||||||
# of Conditions | 0.963 | 0.988 | 1.329 | 1.238 | 1.160 | 1.251 |
Asthma | 7.85% | 9.27% | 12.76% | 8.37% | 10.25% | 8.79% |
Hypertension | 42.98% | 45.56% | 55.14% | 57.32% | 50.82% | 54.81% |
Depression | 6.20% | 1.93% | 5.35% | 3.35% | 7.79% | 7.95% |
Diabetes | 21.07% | 19.31% | 27.57% | 33.89% | 27.46% | 33.05% |
COPD | 18.18% | 22.78% | 32.10% | 20.92% | 19.67% | 20.50% |
2003 Top 1% predicted user | ||||||
# of Conditions | 0.967 | 0.971 | 1.351 | 1.256 | 1.270 | 1.271 |
Asthma | 9.55% | 7.61% | 14.02% | 10.26% | 11.99% | 11.81% |
Hypertension | 41.67% | 46.91% | 55.46% | 54.33% | 53.05% | 52.95% |
Depression | 6.50% | 2.67% | 7.63% | 7.85% | 6.71% | 8.76% |
Diabetes | 20.93% | 20.16% | 27.84% | 30.38% | 29.27% | 31.57% |
COPD | 18.09% | 19.75% | 30.10% | 22.74% | 26.02% | 22.00% |
2003 Top 5% predicted user | ||||||
# of Conditions | 1.030 | 0.981 | 1.283 | 1.459 | 1.288 | 1.425 |
Asthma | 9.00% | 7.50% | 11.84% | 12.52% | 10.39% | 12.17% |
Hypertension | 44.83% | 48.38% | 57.99% | 66.33% | 59.73% | 64.45% |
Depression | 6.24% | 2.40% | 6.13% | 8.40% | 6.00% | 8.30% |
Diabetes | 26.27% | 21.14% | 26.78% | 34.53% | 29.88% | 34.32% |
COPD | 16.62% | 18.70% | 25.54% | 24.13% | 22.85% | 23.22% |