Comparison of alternative risk adjustment measures for predictive modeling: high risk patient case finding using Taiwan's National Health Insurance claims

Table 3 Proportion of true cases identified by ACG models and prior expenditures status at three outcome thresholds

		Model 1: Demographics	Model 2: ACGs & Demographics	Model 3: ADGs, Sel., EDCs & Demographics
Among 2003 top 0.5% user (N = 242)
Top 0.5% predicted group	In top 0.5% predicted group only (area A*)	2.07%	2.89%	5.79%
	In both groups (area B*)	0.00%	0.83%	28.51%
	In 2002 top 0.5% users only (area C*)	47.93%	47.11%	19.42%
Among 2003 top 1% user (N = 492)
Top 1% predicted group	In top 1% predicted group only (area A*)	2.64%	5.08%	6.10%
	In both groups (area B*)	2.44%	8.74%	25.20%
	In 2002 top 1% users only (area C*)	41.87%	35.57%	19.11%
Among 2003 top 5% user (N = 2,467)
Top 5% predicted group	In top 5% predicted group only (area A*)	10.50%	10.58%	10.82%
	In both groups (area B*)	15.28%	25.94%	30.85%
	In 2002 top 5% users only (area C*)	32.27%	21.61%	16.70%

ISSN: 1472-6963