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Table 3 Predictive Ratios for Year-2 pharmacy costs for Disease, Drug Use and Cost Defined Groups.

From: Applying diagnosis and pharmacy-based risk models to predict pharmacy use in Aragon, Spain: The impact of a local calibration

    Alternative Predictive Models
    Dx-PM Rx-PM DxRx-PM
  n Mean pharmacy expenditure Year-2 (€) U.S.
Weights
Spanish
Weights
U.S.
Weights
Spanish
Weights
U.S.
Weights
Spanish
Weights
Medical condition groups
   Hypertension 16,519 931 0.773 0.999 0.856 0.989 0.864 1.000
   Hyperlipidaemia 13,175 811 0.776 0.925 0.900 1.007 0.911 1.010
   Depression 6,326 876 0.847 1.000 0.961 0.979 1.009 1.000
   Diabetes 5,724 1,180 0.714 1.000 0.774 0.984 0.793 1.000
   Asthma 4,090 522 0.951 1.000 0.921 0.959 0.986 1.000
   CHF 864 1,396 1.031 1.000 0.755 0.958 0.774 1.000
Drug utilisation groups
   Antihypertensives 18,209 990 0.721 0.918 0.856 1.000 0.859 1.000
   Lipid-lowering 9,912 1,084 0.638 0.811 0.843 1.000 0.853 1.000
   Antidepressants 8,717 1,023 0.646 0.774 0.920 1.000 0.936 1.000
   Antidiabetics 4,947 1,267 0.654 0.917 0.785 0.998 0.797 1.002
   Antiasthmatics 7,303 755 0.716 0.820 0.870 1.000 0.874 1.000
   CHF 3,981 1,349 0.687 0.822 0.773 1.000 0.774 1.000
Year-1 spending percentiles
   Highest 1% 841 5,708 0.175 0.240 0.247 0.345 0.249 0.368
   Highest 5% 4,207 3,026 0.301 0.421 0.419 0.548 0.421 0.572
   Highest 10% 8,415 2,221 0.378 0.519 0.517 0.642 0.519 0.665
   Highest 30% 25,245 1,168 0.582 0.736 0.735 0.835 0.738 0.846
   Highest 50% 42,075 766 0.746 0.859 0.882 0.935 0.886 0.938
  1. Predictive ratios reflect the ratio of expected pharmacy cost divided by the actual cost for each cohort (PR = 1 indicates perfect prediction, PR<1 indicates underprediction and PR>1 indicates overprediction). Medical condition groups consist of patients with at least 1 relevant diagnosis in Year-1; drug utilisation groups include those with at least one relevant pharmacy fill in Year-1.
  2. Dx: physician assigned diagnosis. Rx: pharmacy prescriptions filled by physicians. PM: predictive model. CHF: Congestive Heart Failure.