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Table 2 Impact of different interventions on the GP workforce

From: General practitioner workforce planning: assessment of four policy directions

Intervention model

Year

   

2011

2016

2021

   

GPs

(% of

demand)*

GPs

(% of

demand)

GPs

(% of

demand)

Demand

        
 

Numbers needed to meet population demand

 

2626

-

2825

-

3010

-

Supply

        
 

Continue current method of GP recruitment

 

2560

(97.6)

2629

(93.3)

2828

(94.3)

 

Increase training places by 20% in 2011

 

2560

(97.6)

2660

(94.3)

2988

(99.7)**

 

Import GPs from abroad

(average 10 per annum)

2587

(98.7)**

2698

(95.8)

2938

(98.3)**

  

(average 20 per annum)

2614

(99.8)**

2781

(98.9)**

3064

(102.9)**

 

Late retirement

(average extra 1 year)

2611

(99.6)**

2692

(95.4)

2880

(95.7)

  

(average extra 2 years)

2652

(101.0)**

2751

(97.5)

2934

(97.6)

 

Nurse substitution (average 50 nurses per annum)

(nurse equivalent to 0.25 GPs)

2704

(98.8)**

3009

(96.5)

3428

(99.3)**

  

(nurse equivalent to 0.50 GPs)

2706

(100.4)**

3006

(99.9)**

3426

(104.3)**

  1. * Supply is estimated as a number of GPs but also shown as a percentage of the GPs required as estimated by demand (shown in the first line of the table)
  2. ** Indicates that confidence bounds encompass 100% - in these cases supply could meet demand