Comparison of Rx-defined morbidity groups and diagnosis- based risk adjusters for predicting healthcare costs in Taiwan

Table 5 Total cost predictive models for specific age groups

Predictors	Variation explained by model (R²)
	Total cost				Medication cost
	(all)	Age < 18	Age 18-64	Age > = 65	(all)	Age < 18	Age 18-64	Age > = 65
Concurrent prediction (year 2006)
Age + gender + Rx-MGs	0.618	0.471	0.589	0.552	0.615	0.399	0.571	0.528
Age + gender + ADGs + Rx-MGs	0.650	0.602	0.629	0.570	0.638	0.520	0.600	0.543
Prospective prediction (year 2007)
Age + gender + Rx-MGs	0.360	0.220	0.333	0.268	0.485	0.244	0.446	0.287
Age + gender + ADGs + Rx-MGs	0.382	0.281	0.359	0.278	0.505	0.308	0.472	0.300
Age + gender + ADGs + Rx-MGs + prior cost	0.465	0.359	0.451	0.376	0.684	0.477	0.677	0.442

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