Table 1 Input parameters and sources*

Vaccine efficacy, %

75

50-100

[10, 12, 46–48]

Vaccine coverage, %

100

30-100

Assumed

Age for starting vaccination, year

12

12-36

[49]

Immunity duration, year

lifetime

10-lifetime

[46, 47]

Booster shot compliance, %

70

30-100

Assumed

Screening variables

Age for starting cervical screening, year

30

[1, 39]

Screening interval, year

1

1-5

[1, 39]

Screening compliance, %

15-30

0-70

[1, 39]

Pap test sensitivity for SIL

0.60

0.40-0.80

[31, 32]

Pap test specificity for SIL

0.97

0.95-0.98

[31, 32]

Costs, US$

Vaccine cost (3 doses)

364

273-455

Assumed

Booster shot cost

121

91-152

Assumed

Cost of Pap test

16

12-20

[41]

Cost for a false-positive SIL

66

50-83

[41]

Cost of treatment for cervical cancer

10 000

7 500-12 500

[41]

Cost of treatment for high-grade SIL

245

183-306

[41]

Utilities

Normal population

1

Assumed

Diagnosed SIL for 1-year

0.97

0.80-1

[13, 40]

Cervical cancer

0.70

0.25-1

Assumed

Cervical cancer, follow-up

0.95

0.90-1

Assumed

Transition probabilities

Incidence of high-risk HPV infection

0-0.09

0.5-2 × base case

[6–9]

HPV infection resolving

0.03-0.46

0.67-1.5 × base case

[33–38]

Developing low-grade SIL from high-risk HPV infection

0.065

0.05-0.08

[50–59]

Low-grade SIL regressing

0.027-0.142

0.67-1.5 × base case

[13, 54–58, 60]

Low-grade SIL regressing to previous HPV infection state, given regression occurs

0.10

0-0.20

[13, 54]

Developing high-grade SIL from low-grade SIL

0.005-0.400

0.67-1.5 × base case

[50–58]

High-grade SIL regressing

0.037-0.058

0.67-1.5 × base case

[13, 54–58, 60]

High-grade SIL regressing to well state, given regression occurs

0.45

0.40-0.50

[13, 54]

High-grade SIL regressing to previous HPV infection state, given regression occurs

0.05

0-0.10

[13, 54]

High-grade SIL regressing to low-grade SIL, given regression occurs

0.50

0.40-0.60

[13, 54]

Developing cervical cancer from high-grade SIL

0.038

0.03-0.06

[50–58]

Annual probability of developing symptoms with undiagnosed cervical cancer

0-1

[13, 54, 61, 62]

Cervical cancer mortality

0.0024-0.3334

0.67-1.5 × base case

Estimated by the National Cancer Registry of Taiwan

Treatment variables

Treatment efficacy, given high-grade SIL, %

95

90-100

[13, 63, 64]

HPV infection persists, given effective treatment of high-grade SIL, %

10

0-25

[13]

Other variables

Discount rate, %

3

0-5

[43]

Cycle length, year

1

Assumed