Figure 1

Schematic diagram of Markov model. The model has a cycle length of one day. All patients begin in the bolded state entitled "SNF day 1." From SNF day 1, patients can transition to a second SNF day, be hospitalized for any one of five conditions, or die. If patients spend 30 consecutive days in the SNF without being hospitalized, they transition to the "Discharged" state, where they remain until they die. If patients are hospitalized, they spend five or six days in the hospital, depending on the condition for which they are hospitalized, unless they die while in hospital. Upon completing their hospital course, patients then return to SNF day 1. Abbreviations: SNF, skilled nursing facility; CHF, congestive heart failure; EI, electrolyte imbalance; RI, respiratory infection; UTI, urinary tract infection.