Table 1 Statistical summary of seasonality and predictability of the 52 admission time series
Health Outcome | R2 Autoreg | Fisher Kappa (p-value)1 | BKS (p-value)1 | # outside 95% CI2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Acute bronchiolitis | 0.95 | 76.56 (<0.01) | 0.77 (<0.01) | 0 |
Non-infectious gastroenteritis | 0.91 | 66.28 (<0.01) | 0.65 (<0.01) | 0 |
Pneumonia/influenza | 0.88 | 68.64 (<0.01) | 0.68 (<0.01) | 0 |
Osteoarthritis | 0.86 | 49.81(<0.01) | 0.37 (<0.01) | 0 |
Appendicitis | 0.84 | 52.99 (<0.01) | 0.50 (<0.01) | 0 |
Uterine fibroids | 0.83 | 40.05 (<0.01) | 0.27 (<0.01) | 0 |
Congestive heart failure | 0.82 | 44.14 (<0.01) | 0.42 (<0.01) | 0 |
Previous C-section | 0.82 | 44.52 (<0.01) | 0.39 (<0.01) | 0 |
Prostatic hyperplasia | 0.80 | 36.49 (<0.01) | 0.31 (<0.01) | 0 |
Singleton birth | 0.76 | 39.20 (<0.01) | 0.37 (<0.01) | 0 |
Croup | 0.75 | 47.84 (<0.01) | 0.56 (<0.01) | 0 |
Diverticulosis | 0.75 | 29.57 (<0.01) | 0.33 (<0.01) | 0 |
Excessive menstruation | 0.72 | 34.02 (<0.01) | 0.26 (<0.01) | 0 |
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 0.71 | 50.14 (<0.01) | 0.50 (<0.01) | 0 |
Urinary tract infection | 0.69 | 52.24 (<0.01) | 0.48 (<0.01) | 3 |
Coronary atherosclerosis | 0.69 | 31.60 (<0.01) | 0.21 (<0.01) | 0 |
Kidney stones | 0.67 | 40.21 (<0.01) | 0.35 (<0.01) | 0 |
Breast cancer | 0.67 | 39.47 (<0.01) | 0.24 (<0.01) | 0 |
MyocardiaI infarction | 0.67 | 32.48 (<0.01) | 0.30 (<0.01) | 1 |
Gall bladder | 0.66 | 34.69 (<0.01) | 0.27 (<0.01) | 0 |
Prostate cancer | 0.62 | 33.42 (<0.01) | 0.26 (<0.01) | 3 |
Senile cataract and cataract unspecified | 0.60 | 26.09 (<0.01) | 0.27 (<0.01) | 0 |
Acute pancreatitis | 0.60 | 25.30 (<0.01) | 0.18 (<0.05) | 0 |
Threatened premature labour | 0.59 | 26.74 (<0.01) | 0.19 (<0.01) | 1 |
Gall bladder w/acute cholecystitis | 0.57 | 20.08 (<0.01) | 0.15 (NS) | 0 |
Convulsions | 0.54 | 22.46 (<0.01) | 0.21 (<0.01) | 0 |
Trochanteric fracture | 0.53 | 22.62 (<0.01) | 0.14 (NS) | 0 |
Chronic tonsillitis | 0.51 | 20.82 (<0.01) | 0.24 (<0.01) | 0 |
Recurrent manic depression (depressed phase) | 0.51 | 25.43 (<0.01) | 0.20 (<0.01) | 0 |
Premature rupture of membrane | 0.50 | 32.01 (<0.01) | 0.25 (<0.01) | 1 |
Displacement of inter-lumbar disc | 0.50 | 26.38 (<0.01) | 0.18 (<0.01) | 1 |
Dehydration | 0.50 | 55.40 (<0.01) | 0.58 (<0.01) | 2 |
Syncope and collapse | 0.48 | 22.57 (<0.01) | 0.18 (<0.05) | 5 |
Uncomplicated diabetes | 0.48 | 22.54 (<0.01) | 0.23 (<0.01) | 0 |
Lung cancer | 0.46 | 19.41 (<0.01) | 0.12 (NS) | 0 |
Depressive disorder | 0.45 | 12.28 (<0.01) | 0.14 (NS) | 1 |
Fractured femur | 0.44 | 12.72 (<0.01) | 0.10 (NS) | 3 |
Unilateral inguinal hernia | 0.43 | 16.52 (<0.01) | 0.18 (<0.01) | 0 |
Abdominal pain | 0.43 | 19.15 (<0.01) | 0.26 (<0.01) | 0 |
Transient cerebral ischemia | 0.41 | 18.42 (<0.01) | 0.12 (NS) | 2 |
Acute but ill defined cardiovascular disease | 0.40 | 14.69 (<0.01) | 0.19 (NS) | 0 |
Angina | 0.40 | 11.72 (<0.01) | 0.14 (NS) | 0 |
Unspecified intestinal obstruction | 0.38 | 10.80 (<0.01) | 0.15 (<0.05) | 0 |
Other acute ischaemic heart disease | 0.36 | 17.08 (<0.01) | 0.15 (<0.05) | 1 |
Recurrent manic depression (manic phase) | 0.35 | 13.77 (<0.01) | 0.10 (NS) | 4 |
Fetal distress | 0.34 | 20.24 (<0.01) | 0.26 (<0.01) | 0 |
Spontaneous abortion unspecified | 0.33 | 10.95 (<0.01) | 0.12 (NS) | 0 |
Stroke | 0.31 | 10.32 (<0.01) | 0.14 (NS) | 0 |
Chest pain (nonspecific) | 0.29 | 11.34 (<0.01) | 0.14 (NS) | 4 |
Gastrointestinal bleed | 0.26 | 7.84 (<0.05) | 0.14 (NS) | 0 |
Other IHD | 0.17 | 6.24 (NS) | 0.12 (NS) | 0 |
Infantile cataract | 0.11 | 4.85 (NS) | 0.28 (<0.01) | 0 |