Table 3 Factors predicting emergency readmission/death at < 29 days of discharge from index surgery episode

Age at diagnosis

< 60 years

1732 (91.3)

164 (8.6)

1.0

-

1.0

60-69 years

2031 (93.2)

149 (6.8)

0.77

0.61-0.98

0.70

0.54-0.90

p = 0.038

70-79 years

2267 (91.1)

222 (8.9)

1.03

0.84-1.28

0.76

0.60-0.97

p = 0.038

80+

1116 (90.1)

122 (9.9)

1.15

0.90-1.48

0.78

0.58-1.05

p = 0.038

Gender

Male

4093 (91.4)

385 (8.6)

1.0

-

-

-

Female

3053 (91.82)

272 (8.18)

0.95

0.80-1.11

-

-

Marital status

Married

4235 (91.81)

378 (8.19)

1.00

-

-

-

Other

2888 (91.25)

277 (8.75)

1.07

0.91-1.26

-

-

Deprivation index ⁵

1 (least deprived)

1355 (93.5)

94 (6.5)

1.00

-

1.0

-

2

923 (91.7)

83 (8.3)

1.30

0.95-1.76

1.26

0.90-1.78

p = 0.060

3

895 (92.1)

77 (7.9)

1.24

0.91-1.69

1.25

0.88-1.77

p = 0.060

4

1213 (91.6)

111 (8.4)

1.32

0.99-1.75

1.20

0.87-1.66

p = 0.060

5 (most deprived)

2193 (90.7)

225 (9.3)

1.48

1.15-1.90

1.42

1.07-1.90

p = 0.060

missing

567 (89.4)

67 (10.6)

1.70

1.22-2.36

1.68

1.16-2.42

p = 0.060

Smoking status

Ever

2552 (91.4)

239 (8.6)

1.0

-

-

Never

3170 (91.8)

283 (8.2)

0.95

0.80-1.14

-

-

Unknown

1318 (91.1)

129 (8.9)

1.04

0.83-1.31

-

-

Comorbidity ⁶

0

5726 (92.2)

482 (7.8)

1.0

-

1.0

p < 0.001

1

1013 (90.6)

105 (9.4)

1.23

0.99-1.54

1.10

0.86-1.44

p < 0.001

2+

407 (85.3)

70 (14.7)

2.04

1.56-2.68

1.83

1.36-2.46

p < 0.001

Site ⁷

Proximal

2516 (91.6)

231 (8.4)

1.00

-

-

-

Distal

1910 (91.9)

168 (8.1)

0.96

0.78-1.18

-

-

Rectum

2480 (91.4)

233 (8.6)

1.02

0.85-1.24

-

-

Non specific

240 (90.6)

25 (9.4)

1.13

0.73-1.75

-

-

Stage

I & II

2338 (92.5)

190 (7.5)

1.0

-

1.0

-

III & IV

2856 (90.6)

295 (9.4)

1.27

1.05-1.54

1.22

1.00-1.51

p = 0.086

Unknown

1951 (91.9)

172 (8.1)

1.08

0.87-1.34

1.00

0.78-1.27

p = 0.086

Index admission

Elective

4623 (92.7)

367 (7.4)

1.0

1.0

-

Emergency

2522 (89.7)

290 (10.3)

1.45

1.23-1.70

1.21

1.00-1.46

p = 0.052

Discharge status

Public

3888 (90.6)

404 (9.4)

1.0

1.0

-

Private

2406 (93.8)

160 (6.2)

0.64

0.53-0.77

0.75

0.61-0.92

p = 0.008

Discharged to

Home

6032 (92.2)

508 (7.8)

1.0

-

1.0

Care

888 (89.7)

102 (10.3)

1.36

1.09-1.71

1.16

0.90-1.51

p < 0.001

Other

224 (84.2)

42 (15.8)

2.23

1.58-3.13

2.13

1.48-3.08

p < 0.001

Same health board ⁸

Yes

6451 (91.5)

603 (8.6)

1.0

-

-

-

No

695 (92.8)

54 (7.2)

0.83

0.62-1.11

-

-

Hospital volume ⁹

< 20

482 (88.1)

65 (11.9)

1.59

1.18-2.14

-

-

20-39

1134 (90.0)

126 (10.0)

1.31

1.03-1.66

-

-

40-59

2120 (92.2)

180 (7.8)

1.0

-

-

-

60-79

1232 (91.8)

110 (8.2)

1.05

0.82-1.35

-

-

80-100

753 (91.4)

71 (8.6)

1.11

0.83-1.48

-

-

> 100

1425 (93.1)

105 (6.9)

0.86

0.67-1.22

-

Surgeon volume ¹⁰

Low (< 10)

2360 (90.8)

238 (9.2)

1.0

-

-

-

Medium (10-29)

2292 (91.9)

201 (8.1)

0.87

0.71-1.06

-

-

High (> 30)

2494 (92.0)

218 (8.0)

0.87

0.71-1.05

-

-

Surgery LOS quartile

Q1

2269 (93.5)

157 (6.5)

1.0

-

1.0

-

Q2

1553 (92.8)

121 (7.2)

1.12

0.88-1.44

1.16

0.89-1.51

p < 0.001

Q3

1651 (92.0)

143 (8.0)

1.25

0.99-1.58

1.17

0.90-1.53

p < 0.001

Q4

1673 (87.6)

236 (12.4)

2.04

1.65-2.52

1.67

1.29-2.16

p < 0.001