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Table 3 Predictive Ratios for Year-2 pharmacy costs for Disease, Drug Use and Cost Defined Groups.

From: Applying diagnosis and pharmacy-based risk models to predict pharmacy use in Aragon, Spain: The impact of a local calibration

   

Alternative Predictive Models

   

Dx-PM

Rx-PM

DxRx-PM

 

n

Mean pharmacy expenditure Year-2 (€)

U.S.

Weights

Spanish

Weights

U.S.

Weights

Spanish

Weights

U.S.

Weights

Spanish

Weights

Medical condition groups

   Hypertension

16,519

931

0.773

0.999

0.856

0.989

0.864

1.000

   Hyperlipidaemia

13,175

811

0.776

0.925

0.900

1.007

0.911

1.010

   Depression

6,326

876

0.847

1.000

0.961

0.979

1.009

1.000

   Diabetes

5,724

1,180

0.714

1.000

0.774

0.984

0.793

1.000

   Asthma

4,090

522

0.951

1.000

0.921

0.959

0.986

1.000

   CHF

864

1,396

1.031

1.000

0.755

0.958

0.774

1.000

Drug utilisation groups

   Antihypertensives

18,209

990

0.721

0.918

0.856

1.000

0.859

1.000

   Lipid-lowering

9,912

1,084

0.638

0.811

0.843

1.000

0.853

1.000

   Antidepressants

8,717

1,023

0.646

0.774

0.920

1.000

0.936

1.000

   Antidiabetics

4,947

1,267

0.654

0.917

0.785

0.998

0.797

1.002

   Antiasthmatics

7,303

755

0.716

0.820

0.870

1.000

0.874

1.000

   CHF

3,981

1,349

0.687

0.822

0.773

1.000

0.774

1.000

Year-1 spending percentiles

   Highest 1%

841

5,708

0.175

0.240

0.247

0.345

0.249

0.368

   Highest 5%

4,207

3,026

0.301

0.421

0.419

0.548

0.421

0.572

   Highest 10%

8,415

2,221

0.378

0.519

0.517

0.642

0.519

0.665

   Highest 30%

25,245

1,168

0.582

0.736

0.735

0.835

0.738

0.846

   Highest 50%

42,075

766

0.746

0.859

0.882

0.935

0.886

0.938

  1. Predictive ratios reflect the ratio of expected pharmacy cost divided by the actual cost for each cohort (PR = 1 indicates perfect prediction, PR<1 indicates underprediction and PR>1 indicates overprediction). Medical condition groups consist of patients with at least 1 relevant diagnosis in Year-1; drug utilisation groups include those with at least one relevant pharmacy fill in Year-1.
  2. Dx: physician assigned diagnosis. Rx: pharmacy prescriptions filled by physicians. PM: predictive model. CHF: Congestive Heart Failure.